Predicting mid-latitude weather in summer can be more of a challenge than in winter. This is generally because components of the atmosphere-ocean system which provide predictability during winter aren't present in summer: we don't have fully developed El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes; there's no stratospheric polar vortex; the Madden-Julian Oscillation tends to be less active; and … Continue reading Some thoughts on summer 2021
I've recently added some additional products from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) to my site -- namely, forecasts of the weekly-average 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies for the next 4 weeks, and forecasts of the monthly-mean 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the next 6 months. These sit alongside the 44 day … Continue reading CFSv2 ain’t that bad: tips on using long-range forecasts
This year's Reading Half Marathon was cancelled at ~6:40 AM on the day of the race (Sunday March 18) due to substantial snow in Reading and the surrounding area (indeed, across most of England...). The cancellation of the event only ~4 hours before runners would be taking to the course was far from ideal, with … Continue reading Reading Half Cancellation: Do people believe forecasts?
This summer I have been working as a gardener in my hometown of Harrogate, North Yorkshire. Being outside and directly affected by the weather means it's an obvious topic of conversation with customers, other tradespeople and my colleagues. I'm aware that British people apparently always talk about the weather, but when you're outside cutting a … Continue reading Apply More Meteorology in Apps?