Some thoughts on summer 2021

Predicting mid-latitude weather in summer can be more of a challenge than in winter. This is generally because components of the atmosphere-ocean system which provide predictability during winter aren't present in summer: we don't have fully developed El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes; there's no stratospheric polar vortex; the Madden-Julian Oscillation tends to be less active; and … Continue reading Some thoughts on summer 2021

CFSv2 ain’t that bad: tips on using long-range forecasts

I've recently added some additional products from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) to my site -- namely, forecasts of the weekly-average 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies for the next 4 weeks, and forecasts of the monthly-mean 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the next 6 months. These sit alongside the  44 day … Continue reading CFSv2 ain’t that bad: tips on using long-range forecasts

Reading Half Cancellation: Do people believe forecasts?

This year's Reading Half Marathon was cancelled at ~6:40 AM on the day of the race (Sunday March 18) due to substantial snow in Reading and the surrounding area (indeed, across most of England...). The cancellation of the event only ~4 hours before runners would be taking to the course was far from ideal, with … Continue reading Reading Half Cancellation: Do people believe forecasts?