40°C in the UK?

Currently, the highest officially recorded temperature in the UK is 38.7°C, recorded at Cambridge Botanic Garden on 25 July 2019. Prior to that, the record was 38.5°C (10 August 2003 in Faversham, Kent), which beat the record of 37.1°C set on 3 August 1990 in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire. Before the 1990 heatwave, the record had stood …

Some thoughts on summer 2021

Predicting mid-latitude weather in summer can be more of a challenge than in winter. This is generally because components of the atmosphere-ocean system which provide predictability during winter aren't present in summer: we don't have fully developed El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes; there's no stratospheric polar vortex; the Madden-Julian Oscillation tends to be less active; and …

CFSv2 ain’t that bad: tips on using long-range forecasts

I've recently added some additional products from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) to my site -- namely, forecasts of the weekly-average 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies for the next 4 weeks, and forecasts of the monthly-mean 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the next 6 months. These sit alongside the  44 day …