Papers

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Submitted

A. H. Butler, S. H. Lee, G. H. Bernhard, V. E. Fioletov, J.-U. Grooß, I. Ialongo, B. Johnsen, K. Lakkala, R. Müller, and T Svendby: Atmosphere [in State of the Climate in 2025: The Arctic]

Lee, J., Y. Wu, and S. H. Lee: Modulation of Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport of Ozone by North Pacific Weather Patterns.

2026

Lee, S. H. and L. M. Polvani: Increasing Frequency and Persistence of the Summertime Greenland High Regime Not Captured by a Seasonal Prediction Model Very Large Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL119421 [Dataset]

2025

Lee, R. W., A. J. Charlton-Perez, and S. H. Lee: Stratospheric Impacts on Weather Regimes Following the 2018 and 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warmings. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115668.

A. H. Butler, S. H. Lee, G. H. Bernhard, V. E. Fioletov, J.-U. Grooß, I. Ialongo, B. Johnsen, K. Lakkala, R. Müller, and T Svendby: Atmosphere [in State of the Climate in 2024: The Arctic], Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0104.1

Schutte, M. K., A. Portal, S. H. Lee, and G. Messori: Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific. Weather and Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025.

Mitevski, I., S. H. Lee, G. Vecchi, C. Orbe, and L. M. Polvani: More Positive and Less Variable North Atlantic Oscillation at High CO2 forcing. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01051-7

Garfinkel, C. I., Z. D. Lawrence, A. H. Butler, E. Dunn-Sigouin, I. Statnaia, A. Y. Karpechko, G. Koren, M. Abalos, B. Ayarzaguena, D. Barriopedro, N. Calvo, A. de la Cámara, A. Charlton-Perez, J. Cohen, D. I.V. Domeisen, J. García-Serrano, N. P. Hindley, M. Jucker, H. Kim, R. W. Lee, S. H. Lee, M. Osman, F. M. Palmeiro, I. Polichtchouk, J. Rao, J. H. Richter, C. Schwartz, S.-W. Son, M. Taguchi, N. L. Tyrrell, C. J. Wright, and R.W.-Y. Wu: A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems. Weather and Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025.

Lee, J., A. H. Butler, J. R. Albers, Y. Wu, and S. H. Lee: Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on the Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport of Ozone. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112588.

2024

Lee, S. H., A. H. Butler, and G. L. Manney: Two major sudden stratospheric warmings during winter 2023/2024. Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.7656.

Lee, S. H., and L. M. Polvani: Large model biases in the Pacific centre of the Northern Annular Mode due to exaggerated variability of the Aleutian Low. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4825.

Tippett, M. K., K. Malloy, and S. H. Lee: Modulation of U.S. tornado activity by year-round North American weather regimes. Monthly Weather Review, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-24-0016.1.

Lee, S. H., G. L. Manney, and A. H. Butler: The February 2023 Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming [in State of the Climate in 2023: The Arctic], Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0101.1.

Butler, A. H., S. H. Lee, G. H. Bernhard, V. E. Fioletov, J.-U. Grooß, I. Ialongo, B. Johnsen, K. Lakkala, R. Müller, T. Svendby, and T. Ballinger: Atmosphere [in State of the Climate in 2023: The Arctic], Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0101.1.

Chen, Y.-C., Y.-C. Liang, C.-M. Wu, J.-D. Huang, S. H. Lee, Y. Wang, and Y.-J. Zeng: Exploiting a Variational Auto-Encoder to Represent the Evolution of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings. Environmental Research: Climate, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad3a0d.

Lee, S. H., and G. Messori: The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107161.

2023

Graham, E., D. Smart, S. H. Lee, D. Harris, A. Sibley, and D. Holley: An atmospheric river and a quasi-stationary front lead to heavy rainfall and flooding over Scotland, 6–8 October 2023. Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4501.

Lee, S. H., M. K. Tippett, and L. M. Polvani: A New Year-Round Weather Regime Classification for North America. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0214.1. [Dataset]

Rantanen, M., S. H. Lee, and J. Aalto: Asymmetric warming rates between warm and cold weather regimes in Europe. Atmospheric Science Letters, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1178.

2022

Messori, G., M. Kretschmer, S. H. Lee, and V. Wendt: Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells. Weather and Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022. [Dataset] [Corrigendum]

Kolstad, E. W., S. H. Lee, A. H. Butler, D. I. V. Domeisen, and C. O. Wulff: Diverse surface signatures of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037422.

Lee, S. H., L. M. Polvani, and B. Guan: Modulation of Atmospheric Rivers by the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100381.

Holley, D. and S. H. Lee: Forecasting extreme heat in the UK during July 2022. Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4290.

Butler, A. H. and S. H. Lee: The 2021 Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming [in State of the Climate in 2021: The Arctic], Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0082.1.

Lawrence, Z. D., M. Abalos, B. Ayarzagüena, D. Barriopedro, A. H. Butler, N. Calvo, A. de la Cámara, A. Charlton-Perez, D.I.V. Domeisen, E. Dunn-Sigouin, J. García-Serrano, C. I. Garfinkel, N. P. Hindley, L. Jia, M. Jucker, A. Y. Karpechko, H. Kim, A. L. Lang, S. H. Lee, P. Lin, M. Osman, F. M. Palmeiro, J. Perlwitz, I. Polichtchouk, J. H. Richter, C. Schwartz, S.-W. Son, I. Statnaia, M. Taguchi, N. L. Tyrrell, C. J. Wright, and R. W.-Y. Wu: Quantifying stratospheric biases and identifying their potential sources in subseasonal forecast systems. Weather and Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022.

Lee, S. H., A. J. Charlton-Perez, S. J. Woolnough, and J. C. Furtado: How do stratospheric perturbations influence North American weather regime predictions? Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0413.1. [Dataset]

2021

Smart, D., S. H. Lee, and E. Graham: Some unusual aspects of the climatology of Storm Arwen (2021). Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4138.

Charlton-Perez, A. J., J. Bröcker, A. Y. Karpechko, S. H. Lee, M. Sigmond, and I. R. Simpson: A minimal model to diagnose the contribution of the stratosphere to tropospheric forecast skill. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035504.

Lee, S. H.: The January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming. Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3966.

2020

Lawrence, Z. D., J. Perlwitz, A. H. Butler, G. L. Manney, P. A. Newman, S. H. Lee, and E. R. Nash: The Remarkably Strong Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex of Winter 2020: Links to Record-Breaking Arctic Oscillation and Ozone Loss. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033271.

Lee, S. H., Z. D. Lawrence, A. H. Butler, and A. Y. Karpechko: Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090328.

Lee, S. H.: The Stratospheric Polar Vortex and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings. Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3868.

Charlton-Perez, A. J., W. T. K. Huang, and S. H. Lee: Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on United Kingdom mortality. Atmospheric Science Letters, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1013.

Lee, S. H., A. J. Charlton-Perez, J. C. Furtado, and S. J. Woolnough, 2020: Representation of the Scandinavia-Greenland Pattern and its Relationship with the Polar Vortex in S2S Forecast Models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3892.

Butler, A. H., Z. D. Lawrence, S. H. Lee, S. P. Lillo, and C. S. Long, 2020: Differences between the 2018 and 2019 stratospheric polar vortex split events. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3858.

2019

Lee, S. H., and A. H. Butler, 2019: The 2018-2019 Arctic stratospheric polar vortex. Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3643.

Lee, S. H., J. C. Furtado, and A. J. Charlton-Perez, 2019: Wintertime North American weather regimes and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex. Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085592.

Lee, S. H., P. D. Williams, and T. H. A. Frame, 2019: Increased shear in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream over the past four decades. Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1465-z.

Lee, S. H., A. J. Charlton-Perez, J. C. Furtado, and S. J. Woolnough, 2019: Abrupt stratospheric vortex weakening associated with North Atlantic anticyclonic wave breaking. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030940.