Some thoughts on summer 2021

Predicting mid-latitude weather in summer can be more of a challenge than in winter. This is generally because components of the atmosphere-ocean system which provide predictability during winter aren't present in summer: we don't have fully developed El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes; there's no stratospheric polar vortex; the Madden-Julian Oscillation tends to be less active; and … Continue reading Some thoughts on summer 2021

CFSv2 ain’t that bad: tips on using long-range forecasts

I've recently added some additional products from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) to my site -- namely, forecasts of the weekly-average 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies for the next 4 weeks, and forecasts of the monthly-mean 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the next 6 months. These sit alongside the  44 day … Continue reading CFSv2 ain’t that bad: tips on using long-range forecasts

Weather and climate records are not mutually exclusive

The atmosphere is a chaotic system with an infinite number of configurations - the weather pattern on any specific day has never before been exactly the same everywhere. Thus, it is extremely difficult to link a specific weather event to climate change. And yet, when significant weather occurs, discussion immediately jumps toward climate change - … Continue reading Weather and climate records are not mutually exclusive

The link between climate change and Britain’s winter storms

This article originally appeared in the February 16th 2020 edition of The Sunday Times, and was co-written with Shingi Mararike. Every winter Britain gets hit by a series of storms. Ciara and Dennis are just the latest — but with two key differences. The first is their strength. Our storms get their energy from temperature … Continue reading The link between climate change and Britain’s winter storms