Meteorologists have a historical penchant for giving names to atmospheric phenomena which, in today's world, sound rather like phrases made up to fit a dramatic headline than real scientific terminology. Bomb cyclone or sting jet are two leading examples. Another term, which has become increasingly used and misused in the wider media in the past …
Bluer skies
Twitter was once a great place for science. Specifically, it was a great place for meteorology and climate science, because it enabled real-time discussion of ongoing events which could very quickly reach the public and the media, as well as other scientists. I first became fully aware of the power of the platform in late …
CFSv2 ain’t that bad: tips on using long-range forecasts
I've recently added some additional products from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) to my site -- namely, forecasts of the weekly-average 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies for the next 4 weeks, and forecasts of the monthly-mean 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the next 6 months. These sit alongside the 44 day …
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Weather and climate records are not mutually exclusive
The atmosphere is a chaotic system with an infinite number of configurations - the weather pattern on any specific day has never before been exactly the same everywhere. Thus, it is extremely difficult to link a specific weather event to climate change. And yet, when significant weather occurs, discussion immediately jumps toward climate change - …
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A “winter heatwave” in a warming world
The final week of February 2019 has been characterised by anomalously warm, record-setting conditions over NW Europe. The United Kingdom broke its all-time maximum record temperature for February on several occasions and at several stations - the previous record of 19.7C from 1998 was obliterated, replaced with a new record of 21.2C (a huge difference …
Not all SSWs were created equal
Non-downward propagating SSWs? Major stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs) attract widespread attention because they are now known to have significant impacts on the tropospheric circulation (e.g. Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001, hereafter BD01). Anomalies in the stratospheric circulation (often expressed as the Northern Annual Mode (NAM) index, or polar cap geopotential height anomalies) propagate downwards through …
The Stratosphere – why do we care?
I study the stratosphere, the layer of atmosphere above the troposphere that extends from about 10-50 km above the surface. Some people might joke (I hope) that "nobody cares about the stratosphere", primarily because, unlike the troposphere, it contains no 'weather' in the traditional sense. Being very dry (...literally), it can't be seen on visible …
Going Viral: Some thoughts one week later
Sunday, July 22, 2018, 9:31 PM BST. I put out a relatively simple tweet comprising of two NASA GISS global temperature anomaly graphics - one for June 1976, and one for June 2018. After listening to the media and meteorologists alike comparing and contrasting the current UK heatwave with that of 1976 (something which I …
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Reading Half Cancellation: Do people believe forecasts?
This year's Reading Half Marathon was cancelled at ~6:40 AM on the day of the race (Sunday March 18) due to substantial snow in Reading and the surrounding area (indeed, across most of England...). The cancellation of the event only ~4 hours before runners would be taking to the course was far from ideal, with …
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