Atmospheric Dynamics @ St Andrews
Simon H. Lee, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences
Only a few years ago, ECMWF's then-twice-weekly 51-member extended-range forecasts were not publicly available -- something that is almost hard to comprehend nowadays, as we have daily, 101-member ensemble forecasts available for free on the ECMWF website. The ensemble size is spectacular, and increases forecast reliability. But I'm more interested in what we gain from …
Continue reading "What’s that coming over the hill, is it a weak vortex?"
Apologies for the long gap between blog updates. But since today's weather in NYC has descended into a snowy, sleety mess, I thought today would be a good day for a blog. Saturday 12 March 2022 Summary: It is increasingly likely that the final stratospheric warming will occur soon, but forecast uncertainty remains large. A …
When I wrote the first SSW blog on the evening of Tuesday 22 February, I did not expect to be writing the next one so soon after with such increased uncertainty. But there are many aspects to the way the world evolved over the last week which I would not have expected! Thanks to everyone …
Welcome to a new blog series! Yes, the title was indeed chosen to fit the SSW acronym. In these posts, I intend to give a brief summary of the state of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex and the latest forecasts. I have yet to decide how regular these will be. Tuesday 22 February 2022 Summary: …