CFSv2: 10 hPa 60°N [U]

Bias-corrected ensemble plume

The bias is calculated as the difference between the 1999-2010 hindcasts and ERA-Interim reanalysis. The CFSv2 has a significant bias toward a weak vortex (shown here as a function of launch date), especially for forecasts launched in early winter, so accounting for this drift is necessary.

Bias correction is applied to forecasts launched between November and March inclusive.

CFSv2 ensemble