CFSv2: 10 hPa 60°N [U]

Ensemble plume


Bias correction is applied to forecasts launched between 1 November and 31 March inclusive. The bias is calculated as the difference between the 1999-2010 hindcasts (as stored on the S2S database) and ERA5 reanalysis. The CFSv2 has a significant bias toward a weak vortex (shown here as a function of initialisation date), especially for forecasts launched in early winter, so accounting for this drift is necessary. Please note that when bias correction is not active (i.e. April through October), comparisons between the ensemble plume and reanalysis are not encouraged.

Forecast evolution


This shows the last 44 days of forecasts, such that the valid time of the last day of the first forecast is today. A good forecast will form an invariant vertical line. If the model is demonstrating a bias and predicting an event at a fixed lead time (rather than valid time), the line will drift toward the horizontal.